Since the commercial launch of 5G in China, the country has achieved global leadership in 5G patents, network construction, and user base, making it a dominant force worldwide.
However, when comparing the commercial performance of 5G with China's 4G—whose network scale and user base also led the world—how does 5G measure up?
China's 4G was commercially launched in December 2013, while 5G was launched in June 2019. According to official data released annually by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), when comparing the first five years of their commercial launches, 5G has significantly underperformed compared to 4G.
First, in terms of driving data traffic, 5G has fallen far short of 4G.
In its second year of commercial operation, 4G drove a 62% year-on-year increase in mobile internet data traffic in China, with growth continuing to rise each year, reaching a 189% year-on-year i
ncrease by its fifth year in 2018. In contrast, 5G only achieved a 36% year-on-year increase in data traffic in its second year, with growth rates declining each year, reaching just 15% in its fifth year in 2023.
Second, in terms of driving revenue from data services, 5G has significantly underperformed compared to 4G.
In the four years following the launch of 4G, mobile data service revenue for telecom operators grew by more than 27% annually, peaking at 38% in one year. This growth propelled revenue from 246.3 billion RMB in 2014 to 598.4 billion RMB in 2018. However, since the launch of 5G, the annual growth rate of mobile data service revenue has remained below 3%, rising only from 609.6 billion RMB in 2019 to 642.6 billion RMB in 2022. Alarmingly, in the fifth year of 5G's commercial use in 2023, revenue began to decline, dropping to 636.8 billion RMB, raising concerns that 640 billion RMB might be the ceiling for mobile data service revenue in the 5G era.
Third, in terms of driving smartphone shipments, 5G has significantly underperformed compared to 4G.
After the launch of 4G, domestic shipments of 4G smartphones reached 171 million units in 2014. This number then soared to 440 million units in 2015 and 519 million units in 2016. Although shipments started to decline afterward, by the time 5G was launched in 2019, 4G smartphone shipments were still holding at a minimum of 359 million units. In contrast, 5G smartphone shipments in the domestic market started at just 14 million units, peaked at 266 million units in 2021, and then began to decline. Even with a slight recovery in 2023, the number only reached 240 million units. From 2014 to 2019, the total domestic market shipments of 4G smartphones amounted to 2.342 billion units, while from 2019 to 2023, the total shipments of 5G smartphones were merely 897 million units—a staggering difference, like night and day.
Since the commercialization of 5G, the three major operators have invested nearly 800 billion yuan to build the world's largest network of 3.9 million 5G base stations. However, despite 5G being touted as nearly 10 times faster than 4G, it has not led to higher data revenue or boosted smartphone sales. From the perspective of commercial returns, do you agree with the conclusion that "5G has significantly underperformed compared to 4G"?
